According to the estimates of the Kyiv School of Economics, based on results of the 2022-2023 marketing year (July 1, 2022 – July 1, 2023), the agricultural export potential is over $14.7 billion.
The structure of export revenue by product category is forecast as follows:
Wheat – $2.6 billion
Barley – $0.6 billion
Corn – $5.8 billion
Rapeseed seeds – $1.6 billion
Soybeans – $0.75 billion
Sunflower oil – $3.2 billion.
The harvest of grain and oil crops in 2021, which could not be exported due to the blockade of ports, is estimated at 20 million tons, and the 2022 harvest – at 35 million tons. It will be possible to export this amount during 2022-2023. As a result, the benefit from the unblocking of ports may amount to 1.63% of GDP in 2022, and 2.24% of GDP in 2023. This will amount to approximately $5.5 billion.
By 2022, Ukraine had been setting the agricultural export record for 4 years in a row. In 2021, Ukraine exported about $28 billion worth of agri-food products. According to the State Customs Service of Ukraine, the export of agri-food products in the first half of 2022 amounted to more than $10 billion, which is 7% less than in the corresponding period last year. From March to June, the export of agricultural products fell by 40% compared to 2021.
Unblocking of ports and the restoration of the volume of exports of agricultural products is a priority issue. Already in July, it was possible to transport about 3 million tons of grain and oilseeds. Before the war, this figure was 6 million tons. Export of 4 million tons is expected in August. So far, 27 ships have left Ukrainian ports, 18 more are waiting to be loaded, and 40 have applied for entry. In pre-war times, 80-100 ships were loaded through the Black Sea ports every month.
Currently, the export of grain by alternative routes accounts to 2 million tons (by rail, road transport and through Danube river ports). However, this is not enough, because in the peak months it is necessary to export up to 6 million tons.
Immediately after the signing of the grain agreement, world wheat prices fell by 8%. As a result, the UN Food and Agricultural Product Price Index also decreased. This helped stabilize world markets and should be the beginning of a solution to the food crisis caused by russia’s military aggression against Ukraine.
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