UkraineInvest continues to actively support businesses and investors by helping them navigate the ever-changing economic landscape. In partnership with UBN Network, an analysis of the key macro-economic indicators that influence Ukraine’s commodity markets and investment outlook has been conducted. Based on this analysis, a quarterly report highlighting key economic and investment trends has been produced.
The Ukraine Quarterly Report Q1 2025 provides a comprehensive overview of the current macroeconomic situation, along with forecasts, opportunities, and challenges that investors may face.
Despite numerous challenges, Ukraine’s economy is showing resilience. Projected GDP growth of 3.9% in 2025 exceeds last year’s growth of 3.6%.
Key economic indicators:
– GDP growth slowed to 0.5% yoy in Q1 2025 due to increased geopolitical uncertainty and infrastructure damage from attacks.
– Inflation accelerated to 13.4% yoy in February 2025, prompting the National Bank of Ukraine to raise its key interest rate to 15.5%.
– The hryvnia exchange rate remained stable in the first quarter, but is expected to weaken from the second quarter to the end of the year.
– Private consumption remains a key driver of economic growth, supported by a rise in real wages (16% in 2024).
– Business sentiment improved in February, with the National Bank of Ukraine’s sentiment index rising to 46.9 from 41 in January.
Despite a reduction in US support, European countries have significantly increased their financial and military assistance to Ukraine. Germany has lifted restrictions on public debt and plans to almost double its assistance this year. The EU has also announced a EUR 800 billion defence spending package, recognising the need to ensure its own security and support Ukraine.
Economic indicators are expected to improve in the second quarter, although the recovery will be moderate due to high prices and ongoing war-related uncertainty.
To download Ukraine Quarterly Report Q1 2025, please follow the link.
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, or YouTube.
