September Business Activity Index Rises Above Last Year’s Level

According to the monthly survey by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), Ukrainian businesses have regained optimism about their economic activity in September 2025. The Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) increased to 50.4, surpassing August’s 49.0 and exceeding the September 2024 level of 48.7.

This positive trend is supported by stable consumer demand, a resilient energy sector, government funding for infrastructure projects, slowing inflation, and a stable foreign exchange market. At the same time, businesses continue to face challenges, including intensified shelling, high restoration costs, rising tariffs, and a shortage of skilled labor.

Sectoral highlights:

Trade showed the strongest performance, with the index rising to 54.0 from 51.8 in August. Companies reported strong demand, sufficient product supply, and slowing inflation. Forecasts indicate continued growth in turnover and procurement, though trade margins are expected to narrow.
Construction is supported by infrastructure financing and favorable weather, but the index fell to 50.0 from 54.0 in August. Companies anticipate growth in volumes and new orders, but at a more moderate pace.
Industry rose slightly to 49.1 from 48.7 in August. Despite production facility damage and labor shortages, firms expect increased output and a recovery in exports.

Looking ahead, industry and construction expect further price increases for products, trade anticipates rising procurement costs, and the services sector expects a slowdown in purchasing price growth. In the labor market, construction companies plan modest staff expansion, while industry and services foresee slight workforce reductions.

The survey, conducted from September 3 to 22, 2025, covered 586 enterprises across various sectors. The BAEI reflects business leaders’ expectations regarding changes in key performance indicators, with values above 50 indicating positive growth expectations.

Full survey results are available on the NBU official website under the section “Monthly Business Surveys.”

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